Fall 2024
The twelve months preceding end-of-Q3 2024 have included a number of major events that were predicted – sometimes promisingly and others forebodingly — to be market-movers for Manhattan real estate: further entrenchment of both Russia and Ukraine committing the parties to what appears to be a long-term conflict, the ramping up of the most severe period of middle east violence in twenty years, felony convictions and an assassination attempt of one major-party US Presidential candidate and the mid-race replacement of another, persistently stubborn inflation, more interest rate volatility, and a Federal indictment of the mayor.
And yet… all year-over-year resale market metrics moved only within the margin of error. The New York City real estate market has proven, once again, to be particularly stable in the face of worldwide, domestic, and local headwinds. Average purchase price was down less than 1% year-over-year last quarter (compared to almost 4% nationwide), and median resale sales price was essentially flat (compared to being down 5.2% nationally). Sales activity performance was similar, with last quarter showing about 2.5% fewer sales than Q3 2023 in both the local and national markets.
Where our local Q3 market performance differs from that of 2023 is in where things appear to be going. Quarterly market reports track closings. Closings are trailing data; average days-on-market from contract-signed to closing across Manhattan is about 75 days. Meaning, September’s sales activity is more indicative of market pulse in mid-June. To get a better sense of energy-on-the-ground last quarter, rather than looking at the number of closings, we’re better served looking at the number of signed contracts… and while closing activity was even with Q3 2023, signed contracts were up over 11%: a categorical improvement.
While the Fed’s larger-than-expected rate cut of 50 basis points mid-September was of course far too late in the quarter to influence market activity. Mortgage markets – and this has been true since the onset of interest rate volatility in Spring 2022 – baked the Fed’s anticipated decisions into mortgage rates several months in advance. So, while the Fed was technically standing pat, mortgage rates fell around six basis points last quarter. Additionally, a vast majority of Manhattan buyers grew more bullish on the prospects of their preferred Presidential candidate throughout the month of August. These events had an unquestionably positive influence on Q3 market activity and have already resulted in a categorically more active Fall season.
Manhattan Sales Market
Click the icon below to view the Q3 2024 Elliman Report for Manhattan sales:
– While overall sales activity decreased 2.5% year-over, sales activity below $1m increased 3.4% over that time span.
– All resale price metrics were essentially flat versus Q3 2023
– Average monthly coop maintenance rose 3.5% over the past 12 months to $2.48 per square foot. Taxes + common charges in condos rose 1.2% to $3.24 per square foot
Brooklyn Market Sales
Click the icon below to view the Q3 2024 Elliman Report for Brooklyn sales:
– Sales activity slips 4.9% Y-O-Y, although remains 4.1% above the ten-year, Q2 average.
– Inventory rose 14.2% from Q2 2023, finally rising for the first time in nine quarters.
– Absorption rate rose to 4.2 months, in line with the ten-year Q2 average.
New York City Rental Market
Click the icon below to view the report for September 2024 Manhattan, Brooklyn, & Queens Rentals:
– Median rent declines for the month and year, although remains 14% above pre-pandemic levels.
– New lease signings down slightly, for the first time since Nov.
– Listing inventory increased by the month for the seventh straight month, and is up 20% for the year.
Quickly In-Contract: 885 West End Ave 12B
That was fast! This Bloomingdale classic-6 accepted a cash offer above the asking price after two weeks on-market.
Another In-Contract: 214 West 16th St 4W
Despite listing during the Summer slow season, this Chelsea 1 bed accepted an offer near its asking price.
Another Happy Buyer: 340 Riverside Dr 9C
After years of searching, including our bidding on off-market properties, this buyer is board approved on their dream UWS 3-bed.
Newly In-Contract: 235 West 108th St 35
This charming and sunny 2 bed has gone into contract near its asking price.
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